MappingTheWeb //

[When Will Twitter Be Acquired?] - Place your bets. The Twitter sweepstakes is about to begin…

My instincts tell me that a Twitter acquisition is in the near future. Potential acquisitor? Probably Google. It seems like a perfect fit with Blogger. In addition, the clean, simplistic look and feel of the micro-blogging leader lends itself well with other Google products.

Who knows though… Google may lose the race. But I think it’s only a matter of time before someone swipes this hot property. Yahoo is the obviously second choice. I could even see a bidding war erupt should rumours begin to circulate.

My guess is that the market would be willing to pay a hefty premium at this point in the game. Then again, I would wager that the company has already been approached, but is demanding a ridiculous sum (see “Facebook”). I await in eager anticipation…

So who’s the buyer? What’s the price tag? When will it happen? Any guesses?

[Facebook - Has The Novelty Worn Off?] - It looks like the Facebook frenzy has finally died down a bit. It seems like only yesterday every tech blogger was posting a story about the social network.

The launch of the F8 platform ignited the PR fire. Eventually, the chaos hit a feverish pitch when acquisition rumours began to swirl. Facebook was quick to discount these rumours, stating they had no intention of selling the company. The last big hurrah came when Microsoft invested a small chunk of cash in the company at an absurd valuation of $15 billion. Now that the PR hurricane has passed, the sea of Facebook is eerily tranquil…

Publicity aside, users are starting to shy away from the social network for another reason - information overload. When Facebook apps was launched, everyone was adding every application they received an invitation for. Now, people are being much more selective with apps, as well as events and groups. Personally, I don’t add any applications at all, and I’m very strict about which events and groups I sign up for. I focus on quality rather than quantity and I think others are doing the same.

If you sense pessimism, you are deceived. I am still very optimistic about the future of this social network. I think they’ve been very smart and strategic with their approach. Their constant push for innovation has led to some industry-changing features, most notably photo-tagging and news feed. If they continue to stay focused and strategic, I am convinced that Facebook can prosper for a long time to come.

[Why Hasn’t Podcasting Caught On Yet?] - When “podcasting” emerged a few years back, enthusiasts quickly proclaimed it to be the next big thing. As is the case with the so-called “semantic web”, podcasting has failed to live up to expectations. But why? The benefits are obvious and publishers are going to great lengths to be heard.

The first thought that comes to mind is time. Maybe people just don’t have enough time in their day to incorporate podcasting listening. Maybe their routine is simply unable to accommodate podcasting.

My second thought focuses around hassle. The requirement of a podcast download, followed by the transfer it to a portable device, may be enough to turn some away.

My last thought centers around the technical aspect of podcasting. RSS is not a mainstream term. In fact, it is rather intimidating to some. Even the term “podcasting” itself may seem daunting. This may seem silly to many of us who live and breathe the web 2.0 world, but sometimes we must take a step back and look at things from a different perspective. Maybe the terminology is just too overpowering and potential users simply shy away.

I can’t see price as being an issue, as most podcasts are offered free of charge. Most publishers seem content with a captive audience - money doesn’t seem to be the key motivator or driver.

Apple has done a lot to bring podcasting mainstream. After all, the company does produce the most dominant podcatching client available on the market, iTunes. Very few other companies have really done much to push the podcasting industry forward.

I have yet to really pinpoint why podcasting hasn’t caught on yet. I do believe it is only a matter of time, but how long? An explosion within the space has been touted for quite some time, yet we’re all still waiting…

Do you have any thoughts as to why podcasting hasn’t caught on yet or reached a more mainstream audience?

[Direction of the Web] - It is unclear to me where the Web is headed in the very near future. The big guys (Google, Yahoo, Microsoft) seem to be a bit lost. In addition, no clear trends or “hot spaces” are emerging. Social networking seems to have cooled down a bit and micro-blogging, though still rising in popularity, seems to be taking a breather.

A few categories are showing promise, but lacking overall direction. These include online video, wikis, podcasting, and personal finances (to name a few). It seems that interest in these areas is present as many players continue to enter the game. Having said that, no-one seems to know how each space will play out. Everyone is providing their own take on the situation, choosing a different audience, vertical, or worse yet, generalizing.

What I’m surprised about is the lack of focus around local. I truly believe this to be the most lucrative niche by far. After all, it relates to real people - think Craigslist or YellowPages. Let’s be honest with ourselves - blog aggregators and social bookmarking sites preach the choir.

With local, a revenue model is not only achievable, but feasible. It’s also sustainable as people can relate (and understand) the business model. Whether income is generated via targeted advertising or premium directory placement, local is an area that needs to be explored more thoroughly.

What do you see in the near-term future of the Web? What sectors will catch fire and which will fizzle out?

In late September 2007, I wrote about the explosive “success” of BlogRush. At one point, BlogRush nearly hit 500 on the Alexa rankings - an amazing feat in such a short period of time. This rise to glory was quickly followed by a fade into oblivion. Nevertheless, a new kid is in town and his name is Entrecard. He claims to be the next big thing, but can he live up to the hype? Even more importantly, can he sustain long-term success where so many others have failed?

Since the launch of Entrecard in mid November, the site/service has exploded onto the scene. Traffic has soared. The site has nearly broken into the Alexa top 1,000 - a phenomenal feat in just 3 months. Sound familiar?

The success of these two start-ups have followed a similar path, although the long-term prospects of Entrecard have yet to play out. Don’t get me wrong, BlogRush has only been around two months longer than Entrecard, but with such viral and volatile services, two months seems like an eternity.

In short, Entrecard is an easy way to network with other bloggers and market your blog. Although it seems like a novel idea, I’m not convinced the model is sustainable. It “feels” like an affiliate/MLM-type process, which doesn’t interest or excite me. Those who use it, swear by it - somewhat akin to MLM associates. These fly-by-night type deals tend to exploit an inefficiency in the market that quickly gets filled or copied by others. For this reason, I don’t see success over the long-term as more players move into the space, saturating the market.

I can bash all I want, but my gut simply tells me this won’t work out. I give it another 3 months tops. In any case, check it out and let me know your thoughts. If you happen to be using the service, post your comments and opinions.